中国3分钟系列之：“萨德”部署——韩国的一招错棋将亚太置于危险中
中国有句成语，叫“项庄舞剑，意在沛公”，讲的是一个人说话和行动的真实意图别有所指。此次美韩在韩国部署“萨德”系统，无意间给了这句颇为复杂的中国成语最清晰的诠释。
There’s a Chinese proverb that goes, “Xiang Zhuang performed the sword dance as a cover for his attempt on Liu Bang's life.” The meaning is that people sometimes speak and act with a hidden motive. The recent decision made by the US and South Korea to deploy the THAAD missile defense system is a clear reflection of this Chinese saying.
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7月初，美韩宣布在韩国部署“萨德”反导系统，表面上看是为了防止朝鲜的核武器攻击，但该系统超出大气层的拦截高度和强大的拦截能力，用以对付朝鲜的短程导弹，就像是“高射炮打蚊子”，根本没有必要。而美国真正的意图则在于监控防御中国和俄罗斯等其他相关国家。
On the surface, the deployment is meant to deter a nuclear threat from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). However, with an interception capacity at altitudes well above the earth’s atmosphere, using THAAD as deterrence to the DPRK’s short-range missiles is like “killing a mosquito with anti-aircraft artillery.” America’s hidden intention is to monitor and deter countries like China and Russia.
美国部署“萨德”，是其“亚洲再平衡”的重要步骤，目的无非是为了巩固其在亚洲以及世界的军事霸主地位；而韩国则是下了一招错棋，实实在在将自身置于更大的危险当中。
For the U.S., the THAAD deployment is an essential part of its “rebalancing” policy in the Asia-Pacific, which serves to consolidate its military supremacy in the region, and even in the world as a whole. But for South Korea, the move is a huge mistake and will place the country in an even more perilous situation.
“萨德”资料图
我们看到，自习近平和朴槿惠两位领导人上任以来，中韩高层交往频繁，经贸关系发展迅速。而部署“萨德”，势必给这些年来发展良好的中韩关系带来巨大的伤害，经贸合作、观光旅游必然受到影响。
Since Chinese President Xi Jinping and South Korean President Park Geun-hye took office, Sino-Korean exchanges at the senior level have become more frequent, leading to rapid improvement in their economic and trade relations. But the deployment of the THAAD system is bound to take a toll on these breakthroughs and impair future economic and trade cooperation as well as tourism.
更为严重的是，此举最大限度地刺激了朝鲜，让半岛军备竞争陷入了一个上升的恶性螺旋。朝鲜7月多次发射导弹予以回应，并警告一旦美韩确定在韩部署“萨德”系统的位置和场所，朝方将采取“物理性措施”予以应对。
It will also be seen as a huge “provocation” toward the DPRK and could possibly send the Korean Peninsula into a vicious spiral of arms race. In the wake of the THAAD announcement in July, the DPRK fired multiple ballistic missiles as a show of force and warned that it would retaliate against the new system with a “physical response”.
萨德，无异于韩国在自家院子中放置的一个炸药桶，一旦想象中的战事变成现实，受害最深的必是韩国自己，韩国人民一直以来憧憬的“国民幸福时代”很可能因此而演变成“国民痛苦时代”。而美国则有更多选择，既可深度参与，也可袖手旁观，更可能像当年在越南那样，拍屁股走人，把死亡、伤痛、废墟留给朝鲜半岛。
The THAAD system is nothing less than a “powder keg” in South Korea’s backyard. If the imaginary war does come true, South Korea is bound to become a battlefield. Its own people will suffer the most, transforming their “new era of hope and happiness" into “an era of misery”.
The U.S., on the other hand, has more choices. It can either actively engage in the war or stand aside watching, and more likely, it could walk away, just as it did during the Vietnam War, leaving deaths, injuries and debris to the Korean Peninsula.
不少韩国的有识之士已经看到了这一不明智行为的后果。韩国庆南大学远东问题研究所教授李相万认为，部署“萨德”是韩国政府忽略半岛和平统一、无视国民安危的决定，是主要为美国利益服务的非战略性决定。2000余名韩国民众21日下午在首尔火车站广场举行大规模示威集会，抗议美韩当局部署“萨德”导弹防御系统。
Some insightful people in South Korea have already pointed out the mistakes of the irrational deployment. Sang-Man Lee, a professor at Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University, said that deploying the THAAD system is a non-strategic decision that mainly serves US interests while impairing a peaceful unification on the Korean Peninsula and putting people’s safety at risk.
On July 21, over 2,000 Koreans gathered at a square outside the main train station in Seoul for a rally to protest the deployment.
希望韩国政府三思，为朝鲜半岛和亚洲的和平，更是为了自身的安全。
Let’s hope the South Korean government will think twice and thrice for the well-being of the Korean Peninsula, of Asia, and most importantly, of its own people.
韩美决定将“萨德”部署在庆尚北道，而非首都圈地区，恰恰证明了“萨德”部署的目的并非是为应对朝鲜的核及导弹威胁，而是美国企图维持东亚地区霸权地位而采取的军事性、技术性措施。
——韩国前统一部长官 丁世铉
“萨德”入韩让大国在朝鲜半岛问题上好不容易形成的合作关系恶化并转成对抗。关心朝鲜半岛局势的大国以前的“最大公约数”是让朝鲜半岛无核化，今后随着“萨德”的部署，“萨德”将取代无核化成为大国最关注的安全问题。
——中国国际问题研究院常务副院长 阮宗泽
“萨德”入韩不仅在撕裂韩国国内舆论，反对派与支持派相互攻讦，而且引发民众抗议，还刺激中俄朝，招致中国的强烈反应，诱发地区紧张局势。韩国同意“萨德”入韩意味着韩国自此以后就绑上了美国战车，不仅得不到预想的安全，可能还会加剧自身不安全。
——辽宁大学转型国家经济政治研究中心研究员 李家成
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